Fuel has always been one of the most variable and impactful costs for fleet operators. While advancements in vehicle technology continue to improve fuel efficiency, prices at the pump remain largely influenced by external factors — many of which are beyond any fleet’s control. 

In 2024, fleets saw a modest reprieve. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, average retail gasoline prices declined by approximately 10% compared to 2023, thanks to lower crude oil prices and softened demand. While this drop brought short-term relief, history reminds us that fuel prices can shift rapidly.  

Seasonality and global market conditions also heavily influence fuel prices. Warmer months typically bring increased demand due to higher travel volumes, often driving prices higher during spring and summer. On a broader scale, international trade policies, such as tariffs on Canadian oil, can also disrupt supply channels and exert upward pressure on fuel costs.  

For fleet managers, the question isn’t just how to react to these changes, but how to build a strategy that can withstand them. 

Managing fuel volatility

While each fleet faces unique operational challenges, there are a few proven strategies that can help any organization navigate fuel uncertainty: 

1. Leverage Telematics: Real-time data can be one of the most effective tools for controlling fuel use. Telematics systems help fleet managers monitor vehicle performance, monitor driver behavior, track idling and lead to smarter, more fuel-efficient driving patterns across the board. 

2. Prioritize Preventive Maintenance: A well-maintained vehicle is a more fuel-efficient vehicle. Simple issues like underinflated tires, dirty air filters or outdated oil can quietly drive up fuel costs. Regular, preventive maintenance not only extends vehicle lifespan, it ensures vehicles are operating at their most efficient. 

3. Promote Fuel-Efficient Driving Habits: Driver behavior has a significant impact on fuel use. Training drivers to reduce harsh acceleration, avoid excessive idling and follow optimized routes can result in measurable savings. Many fleets are now using coaching tools that pair with telematics to support safer, more efficient driving practices.  

4. Keep Your Vehicles Current to Maximize Savings: A solid Model Year Plan goes beyond just ordering, it helps you pinpoint each vehicle’s Economic Useful Life and identify the best time to replace. This strategic approach will help you boost fuel efficiency, cut maintenance costs and increase resale value, delivering real savings while keeping your fleet running at peak performance. 

5. Increase Visibility Through Fuel Management Tools: Fuel card programs and digital dashboards provide essential visibility into fuel spending. Monitoring this data can help identify inefficiencies, flag unusual purchases and provide benchmarks that inform broader cost-reduction efforts. 

6. Use Data to Build Flexible, Future-Focused Strategies: Perhaps the most important shift is moving from reactive to proactive. Fleets that rely on consistent, clear data can better understand trends and make more strategic decisions. For example, knowing which vehicle types or routes are the most fuel-intensive can inform decisions about vehicle replacement or electrification over time. 

Volatility into opportunity

While no fleet can control the global forces that drive fuel prices, every fleet can control how it prepares and responds. By embracing data, investing in vehicle maintenance and promoting smart driving habits, fleet operators can mitigate the impact of fuel volatility and position themselves for long-term efficiency.

Ultimately, resilience in the face of fuel uncertainty comes from strategy, not guesswork. The most successful fleets aren’t the ones with the cheapest fuel — they’re the ones with the clearest insights, the strongest habits and the agility to adapt when the market shifts. With the right tools and mindset, even an unpredictable expense like fuel can become a manageable part of your bottom line.  

Tim Mundahl is a director of fleet consulting at Merchants Fleet. Merchants Fleet is a fleet management company in North America, based in Hooksett, New Hampshire. For more information, visit merchantsfleet.com.