There was a noted excitement over new trucks displayed at the Water & Wastewater Equipment, Treatment & Transport Show earlier this year. Plenty of serious buyers joined the tire-kickers inside the Indiana Convention Center, as truck builders I talked to reported selling spec trucks off the show floor.

My unscientific evidence of a strong market for wastewater industry rolling equipment seems to be backed up by the findings of the 2016 Fleet Purchasing Outlook released by the NTEA – The Association For the Work Truck Industry. The annual survey of truck fleet buyers gives a generally positive forecast for truck purchasing this year. That’s good news following a span of volatility in the market after the economic downturn starting in 2008 and a surge of replacements of aging vehicles in the past few years.

The roller-coaster economy over the past decade seemingly led to periods where a glut of trucks were available, followed by periods of short supplies of chassis and some reported longer wait times for work truck build-outs. At some points, pumpers I talked to seemed gun-shy about replacing older rigs, and at other times impatient to update trucks that were showing reliability issues. Fleet buyers and truck builders seem to be finding an equilibrium, with replacement trends becoming more predictable.

SENSE OF OPTIMISM

“The relatively healthy business environment has prompted interest in aggressive acquisition plans. With generally stable funding levels, fleets are focused on replenishing dated vehicles and considering new truck productivity technologies,” Steve Carey, NTEA executive director, said in the survey introduction. “This year’s study reveals a general sense of optimism among responding vocational fleets, influenced by modest gains and overall stability across the industry.”

But there’s room for more robust work truck updating, the outlook indicates. Many fleet buyers continue to take a conservative approach, holding on to trucks longer than they would have anticipated previously, and the collapse of oil prices seems to have muted interest in some alternative fuel technologies.

Important findings for 2016, noted in the NTEA executive summary, include:

• 40 percent of those surveyed report a rising average truck age
• 60 percent report their average truck age is 5 to 10 years
• Nearly one-third intend to expand truck numbers
• More than half continue to exceed their normal replacement cycle
• 95 percent report likely-to-sure funding for planned purchases

RESULTS MAY VARY

When considering statistics provided by a wide variety of fleet buyers, I have to say that results and attitudes may vary among the subset of pumping and portable sanitation companies. Pumpers have unique requirements for their vehicles and typically have smaller fleets. Running a few trucks every day, they have limited resources to replace the rigs, and they must remain flexible and nimble with their purchases because they usually can’t go too long with an unreliable truck parked in the garage. When they need a truck, they really need a truck, typically.

The NTEA survey respondents included a broad sampling of fleet purchasers across the U.S. and Canada; among them the largest number (38 percent) manage municipal or government fleets. About 40 percent of the responses were from buyers within several smaller fleet categories, those with less than 100 trucks, while only 9 percent of those surveyed have less than 10 trucks. So it’s fair to state that less than half of the responses came from buyers that would align closely with the pumping industry.

That said, the report says that smaller fleet buyers have a shorter truck life cycle and will have slightly newer fleets in 2016 over 2015. For those with less than 10 vehicles, 53 percent of the equipment is less than 5 years old, 16 percent is 5 to 10 years old, and 31 percent is 10 to 15 years old. For larger fleets, generally more trucks fall into the 5- to 10-year age and fewer trucks are less than 5 years old.

The overall trend is for strong work truck purchases in 2016, according to the report. More than 60 percent of respondents indicated fleets will remain the same size as 2015. More than 30 percent expect fleet size will grow, while only 5 percent say they will decrease in size, with that number declining dramatically over recent years.

“Although fleet purchasing plans have become a bit more conservative in 2016 as compared to the last two years, levels remain high, with 86 percent of respondents seeking acquisitions,” the report reads. “In fact, 66 percent hope to add at least as many trucks as last year. While 2016 data shows fleet buyers are less inclined to acquire more trucks than last year (24 percent compared to 38 percent for 2015), plans to purchase the same number largely offset the change, with an 11 percent gain, suggesting fleets are following a more regular replacement cycle.”

In short, here’s the breakdown of expected purchases in 2016 over 2015:

• 24 percent will acquire more
• 42 percent will acquire the same number
• 20 percent will acquire less
• 14 percent have no new purchases planned 

OIL PRICE FACTOR

Not unexpectedly, interest in alternative fuel technologies has declined due to persistently low oil prices driving down the cost of diesel and gasoline. The report indicates that interest in alternative fuels will likely remain muted until oil prices bounce back. Support for alternative fuels dropped from 37 percent of buyers in 2014 to 18 percent this year. In 2016, 53 percent of fleets plan to modify truck specs to improve fuel economy or reduce utilization, off 11 percent from last year.

Respondents aren’t showing much interest in auxiliary power units, electrification of truck systems or improved vehicle aerodynamics. They are showing modest interest in powertrain optimization, telematics and route optimization, use of engine stop/start technology, and vehicle weight reduction. The most prevalent alternative fuels being used presently are biodiesel, E85 and compressed natural gas. Biodiesel is being used by 18 percent of fleets now, up from 15 percent in 2015. Gains also recorded for propane/autogas, full electric and hydraulic hybrid technologies, but trends are mostly down from 2013, however.

“Given the diverse range of available tax advantages, financing options and potential cost savings, implementing alternative fuels can be a smart decision in the long term,” the report concludes on an optimistic note.

The report uncovered an interesting trend in vehicle maintenance. It states that use of an in-house mechanic is on the decline, from 80 percent of fleets in 2015 to 68 percent in 2016. The buyers reported moving toward outsourcing maintenance to a fleet management company or other outside garage.

These are just a few of the trends outlined in the 24-page fleet outlook. The NTEA makes the complete report available to member companies or for a fee to nonmembers. To learn more, go to www.ntea.com or call 800/441-6832.

HOW ABOUT YOUR PLANS?

I’m interested in learning if Pumper readers reflect the trends from the NTEA survey. Will you be shopping for a new vacuum truck for septic or portable sanitation service this year and selling off an older rig? Is your fleet aging to the point that inconvenient breakdowns are hurting your ability to meet customer demands? Is an improved business climate prompting you to upgrade a truck or put another one on the road? Let me know your thoughts at editor@pumper.com.